It has been only a year
after Operation Pillar of Defense and war clouds have already
started to gather over Israel and the West Bank. There is growing chatter of
another upheaval - a potential third Intifada. The
spine-tingling accounts of violence and bloodshed that were manifest in the
previous two uprisings are scattered throughout the internet for all to read.
No one in their right senses would want to see another disaster yet recent
events in the region compel us to envisage otherwise.
Last November, Israel
launched Operation Pillar of Defense in retaliation to the
ceaseless rocket attacks from Gaza. Hamas and the notorious al-Qassam brigade
were mainly held responsible for initiating the conflict. After over 100
rockets were launched at Israel the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded by
killing Ahmed Jabari, chief of Gaza military wing of Hamas in a precision
airstrike on his vehicle. The clashes continued for a month and there were
civilian casualties on both sides. The Gazans took a heavy toll with more than
a 100 civilian deaths. The damage incurred by Israel was not substantial but
that was because of the IDF's stunning ability to thwart terror attacks and
partly due to the Iron Dome air defense system that had a 90% success rate in
stopping rockets.
But Israel cannot expect
to escape lightly if there is to be an outpouring of violence. The US Secretary
of State John Kerry has warned Israel of a third Intifada if
the peace talks fail. There were rumblings of resentment in the West Bank,
especially in the refugee camps of the Nablus, over Binyamin Netanyahu's
announcement that Israel will continue to build new settlements. The refugee
camps are extremely volatile regions and were the rallying points for the last
two Intifadas. The rising ferment in the region is as a result
of a widespread phobia that the peace talks are a US-Israeli conspiracy aimed
at annihilating the Palestinians and protracting Israel's imperialist
ambitions. Even though this a completely deranged notion the Palestinian people
cannot be entirely blamed for this.
Their leaders play a huge
role in instigating such fears. They give unwanted and unnecessary importance
to Israeli settlement plans and perpetuate horrible lies about Israel's so
called 'sinister designs'. During the late 1990s, Suha Arafat (wife of the late
Yasser Arafat) made dubious claims that Israel was poisoning Palestinian wells
and spreading cancer and AIDS by dumping truckloads of chemicals. It has been
almost 15 years since she made those accusations and the world has still not
heard of, god forbid, an AIDS or cancer pandemic that gripped the West Bank or
Gaza.
While there is a lot of
kerfuffle over Israeli settlements not one word of appreciation has been
uttered, in the Palestinian territories, about Israel's intention of releasing
a third and probably a fourth round of Palestinian convicts. Of course, the
revered 'freedom fighters' will receive a grand welcome and many of them will
look forward to reenact their violent pasts, but not one word of praise will be
said about Israel. Neither will anything be said about the menacing rocket
attacks or the recent deaths of two members of the IDF who were killed by
Palestinian snipers or for that matter the horrific bombing of a bus in Tel
Aviv. Rather, all these events were met with cheer. These events have already
soured the prospects of achieving a major peace deal and yet it will be Israel
that has to face the ire of the world if a peace deal is not reached.
The settlement plans are
not an immediate necessity and they will surely hamper the peace process but
the fact is that these plans are not the only obstacles to peace. To a large
extent many outside forces are also responsible for initiating regional
tensions. As seen last month, when the supreme leader of Iran viciously called
Israel "the rabid dog of the region" and bullishly said that,
"Israel was doomed to destruction". Such provocative statements from
a person widely respected among the Palestinian people is bound to create
trouble. Iranian leaders have also labelled the current peace dialogue as a
"farce" and a ploy by the US and Israel to perpetuate their dominance
of the region.
Israel is also under
great pressure from the US to release the next round of prisoners and put a
halt to their settlement plans. But where is the pressure on Mahmoud Abbas and
company? The Palestinian Authority (PA) is on a rejecting spree. Almost
everything the US and Israel put forward are spurned outright by the
Palestinian leadership. There is a need for compromise on both sides. After
all, we do not want the Camp David disaster of 2000 to be repeated.
The Americans are doing everything
possible in order to achieve a lasting peace deal. John Kerry has made nine
trips to the Middle East in 2013 and is all set to make a tenth one. He is
determined to ink a deal between the two adversaries. He has also promised to
free Jonathan Pollard if Israel agrees to release Israeli Arab prisoners. The
Kerry plan includes a clause which provides for a US peace-force to monitor the
region for specified number of years if a deal is reached.
But all the efforts could
come to absolutely nothing if the PA and other regional actors continue with
their blame game. This is a great opportunity for both sides to put aside all
their differences and aim for a final deal. A Palestinian state is the need of
the hour. All other differences could be sorted out after the Palestinians
achieve statehood. This might be quite an obnoxious statement to make but there
is no harm in giving it a try. Failure to achieve a deal will most certainly
light the touchpaper and revert the region back to its darkest days. The region
looks ripe for another bout of violence and one act of stupidity from either
side will be enough to engulf the region in flames. A third Intifada would
mean an end to any hopes of peace for a long time to come.
First published in The Times of Israel on 31 December, 2013.
